COUNTERBET - A harness racing system / trotting racing
system - developed 2011
by us in late 2010 with the aim of returning an unspectacular but sustainable
profit from the many many harness races held in Australia each month.
Our starting premise was derived from an observed pattern of predictability
that first became apparent around mid 2010 but had to go on the "back
burner" due to other time commitments.
intent was to run a "live" 1500 bet test
from January 1. In the end it became a 1600
live bets exercise that ran from
January 1 2011 to May 20 2011.
with this method, we generated two different staking plans - one lowest
risk - one medium risk.
size was 4437 races run from January 1 to May 20 2011. This resulted in
1605 betting transactions or roughly 36% of all races. The winners strike
rate was a respectable 27.7% - 445 winners.
Here is a brief synopsis of both staking plans:
a) Lowest Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close of business 20
May 2011) (This is the he plan we used
in our live test)
Sample size: 4437
races Bets: 1605 (36% of all races) Winners: 445 (27.7% s/r)
Bank: $1000 Closing Balance: $4569.40
Profit on turnover:
to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices) : 12 – 16
An abridged version of this Lowest Risk staking plan can be downloaded
by "right clicking" HERE
Medium Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close of business 20 May
Sample size: 4437 races
Bets: 1605 (36% of all races) Winners: 445 (27.7% s/r)
Bank: $1500 Closing Balance: $10144.60
Profit on turnover:
to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices) : 11 – 14
abridged version of this Medium Risk staking plan can be downloaded by
"right clicking" HERE
** Interestingly the
LONGEST run of outs resulting from this methodology was 19. That happened
only once in the five months of testing in late March 2011.
REAL CLINCHER: There are NO form guide considerations involved in this
methodology. We don't worry about mile rates, or last halves
or classes up or down or distances being suitable or likely leaders and
"sit" positions or any of the traditional harness racing analysis
considerations. We leave that to the experts. They're way smarter than
us. We just use the end product of their good work, together with a couple
of key added observations, to make our own profit.
Note that we used
the Victorian TAB as our market guide. Naturally if you are using the
Unitab or NSW TAB you MUST inevitably come up with some slightly different
results. That's just the way it is and, again, it is a "swings and
roundabouts" situation. What you will lose here and there you'll
pick up in other cases.
Overall we don't believe
the results will vary all that much.
In fact we don't believe
it will matter that much if you miss out on a slab of races (or days of
races) here and there simply because of the consistency of the results.
if you only bet on Fridays and Saturdays? Don't know. We didn't
go down that road - again - time constraints - but we think it would probably
be about the same overall.
For the purposes of our proving test we operated on all harness races
in Australia apart from those in West Australia, Tasmania and Canberra.
We did not bet on New Zealand races although that was an option.
We didn’t operate
on West Australia simply because of daylight savings times and no other
reason. With West Australia being three hours behind the eastern states
over summer, we simply are not inclined to be still at a computer betting
Similarly with New
Zealand races, it would have meant a 9.30 am start and the spread of hours
from then to late night meetings was just too great. It would have necessitated
a two person effort to cover that number of meetings. Perhaps you are
part of a two person set up? This may suit you down to the ground.
Call us old fashioned
but, hey, like you, we have better things to be doing with our time. It
simply makes it too demanding to be locked out of everything (and everybody)
else from 9am to midnight.
If you are a two person
"team" looking at playing with this then you may be able to
incorporate WA and New Zealand harness racing as well as we believe they
are just as consistent as the rest.
We did not bet on
Tasmanian harness racing because of the high number of odds on pops (by
the way we never bet odds on) and we did not bet on Canberra because of
the high interchange of NSW and Victorian pacers with too great a mix
of form. Our research figures bear out these exclusions. If you choose
to incorporate them into your "mix" you will lose.
Don’t say we didn't warn you!
work on WA and New Zealand racing? We believe it will from the
limited observation we did on those venues - in fact there is no reason
why it won't, but we did not include them in our test because of the time
FAQ: Do I
need to bet on these real time or can I set and forget?
You will need to be on your computer when they race. There is no other
way to do it. Same as all things: what you get out is directly proportional
to what you put in. Absolutely nothing comes from nothing! Naturally it
goes without saying you need an internet betting account. It also goes
without saying.....so I won't.
In this case you need
to put in the hours. No way around it. But would you rather put in the
hours sitting on your butt in front of a computer in the comfort of your
own home or spend it getting the same amount of dollars swinging a shovel,
or driving cabs or in retail serving rude people? You choose.
FAQ: Do I
really have to run an Excel spread sheet to make this work and how do
I do the formulas?
We have supplied all the info to fully explain how these work. I know
some people really freak out about Excel but it really is quite simple
once you get the hang of it. In fact it is a great skill to acquire for
all sorts of projects far removed from racing. Don't be scared of it.
Embrace it and advance yourself.
you really think that any successful investors get by doing stuff in their
heads? OR scratched out on a piece of A4 writing paper? Of course not.
Losers do that.
have supplied all the spreadsheet masters and blank masters and examples
and detailed explanation of the formulae. If you know nothing about Excel
take this valuable opportunity to learn. It will reward you greatly in
terms of knowledge if nothing else.
Note we do not have
a Staking Plan called the NO RISK INVESTMENT STRATEGY because that would
be patently absurd. There is always risk in these things.
You will at different times strike a run of outs that will absolutely
destroy your punting bank to oblivion. GUARANTEED!
Just as it happened
with us on March 27/28 2011.
If you get off to a “flying start” you can make it even safer
by withdrawing on a more regular basis and keep adjusting your bank down.
It really is whatever YOU feel comfortable with and only YOU know that!
You may choose to
take even higher risks than what we did - we after all very very conservative
with this stuff. (Life long habit!) Our staking plans can be adjusted
up or down to cater for any risk level you may choose. We wouldn't go
any higher up the risk scale than what we have. You may be different.
Up to you.
FAQ: Would I get better returns if I was using Betfair?
In a perfect world undoubtedly yes but will you be able to get set on
every harness race meeting you wish to invest on? In the real world probably
Our staking plans
are based on starting with a $1000 bank. Our advice to you, no, our STRONG
advice to you, is start with a smaller bank until you get the "gist"
of how this stuff works and you become familiar with the pattern. If you
are bound to make mistakes to start with - and you will - make them cheap
Upon purchase we will
send you all details of our rules and plans by email including
blank pre-formatted Excel spread sheets that set out all
the calculations etc etc etc - (all you have to do is fill in a few squares)
- together with a ten page booklet explaining all the selection rules
(a whole 6 of them!) and a detailed explanation of how the Excel
spread sheets work and the reasoning behind the formulas for both the
Lowest Risk and Medium Risk staking plans - they are slightly different.
You'll be an expert in no time - well, maybe not an expert but you will
be further down the road to getting a handle on this really useful method.
- A method for harness racing / trotting - developed 2011
to use Paypal? No worries. We do accept direct deposits to our RaceRate
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To make this
product available at the right price, we are only distributing it as an
e-mail attachment to minimise costs.
Once we have
received your order and confirmation of payment, you will be very quickly
sent by e-mail to your nominated e-mail address, the full rules and staking
plans for Counterbet.
Counterbet instantly (well, maybe not instantly
if we are out of the office - but always within a short space of time!!)
using your credit card via Paypal, click on the Buy Now buttons on this
page and all the system rules and betting sheet work outs will very quickly
be on their way to you via e-mail.
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